Extracts from the press conference by Olli Rehn on the autumn economic forecasts for 2012-2014 (France, Germany, UK)
On 7 November 2012, Olli Rehn, Vice-President of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, presented the economic autumn forecast for 2012-14 in the Euro area.
This video shows extracts from the European Economic Forecast for France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
The French economy has slowed down amid the economic contraction in the euro area in 2012, but has fared better than many of its European peers thanks to relatively resilient domestic demand and in spite of disappointing exports. However, after three quarters of stagnating Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and historically low levels of corporate profitability, prospects for an imminent recovery have waned. Entrepreneurs, whose confidence has suffered, are expected to scale down their investment and employment plans in the short term.
After a slight decline in the fourth quarter of 2011, German GDP rebounded at the beginning of 2012. An expansion of 0.5% q-o-q (seasonally and working-day adjusted) in the first quarter was followed by lower growth of 0.3% q-o-q in the second quarter. Growth in the first half of the year was driven by both consumption and exports, while the contribution of gross fixed capital formation was negative.
The UK re-entered a recession, technically speaking, in the first quarter of 2012 as this was the second consecutive quarter of negative growth (-0.3%). This was exacerbated in the second quarter of this year with a further decline of -0.4% over the previous three months, driven in large part by the impact of an extra bank holiday in June to celebrate the Queen's Diamond Jubilee. SHOTLISTLINK