Extracts from the press conference by Joaquín Almunia Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs on the Autumn 2009 Economic Forecasts
The EC published its Autumn economic forecasts for 2009-2011 for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, employment and public finances. Joaquín Almunia, Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs, presented figures for all 27 European Union countries, plus the EU and euro area aggregates.
The Commission's autumn forecast projects that the EU economy will emerge from recession in the second half of this year, although for 2009 as a whole, GDP is still set to fall by some 4%. A gradual recovery is expected with GDP forecast to grow by ¾% in 2010 and around 1½% in 2011.
The near-term rebound in activity follows from improvements in the external environment and financial conditions, as well as from the significant fiscal and monetary policy measures put in place. Further out, a number of factors are set to restrain private demand and thus, the strength of the recovery. In particular, labour-market conditions will remain weak, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 10¼% in the EU. The public deficit is also expected to rise, to 7½% of GDP in 2010, before falling back slightly in 2011 as the economy picks up and temporary measures gradually come to an end. SHOTLISTLINKLINK