MAP Newsletter

02/09 - July 2009 [pdf] [Summary in pdf]

"EU Agri-Trade: Moving through Turbulent Times"

The evolution of agricultural trade is the focus of this MAP newsletter. Last year the EU's trade deficit grew to nearly €5 billion, mainly due to the increased cost of commodities and intermediate products. High prices also explain the growth in the US trade surplus to $35 billion.

The MAP also examines the impact of the current economic crisis on trade. In the first quarter of 2009, the EU's deficit expanded, although the decrease in EU Trade has slowed down in March compared to February. Global trade has also slowed down with US and Brazilian exports down as well as Chinese and Japanese imports.

01/09 - February 2009 [pdf] [Summary in pdf]

"The New US Farm Bill: Zooming in on ACRE"

The long-awaited 2008 US Farm Bill is the subject of the first MAP of 2009. With farmers now signing up for support schemes for 2009/10, we zoom in on the new scheme known as the Average Crop Election Programme or ACRE. Because guaranteed prices under ACRE lock in the increases of the last two years, the new programme looks more attractive than the traditional suite of commodity support schemes. If there is a high take-up and if prices fall, then expenditure could increase sharply over levels seen in recent years. US agricultural policy once again appears to be increasing the trade-distorting component of its domestic support.

02/08 - October 2008 [pdf] [Summary in pdf]

"The 2008 Outlook for World Agricultural Commodity Markets"

So far this has been a turbulent year for world agricultural markets with record high prices followed by a sharp downturn in recent months. This MAP of highlights the changes that agricultural markets have undergone this year and identifies the main trends for the outlook up to 2017, based on projections by OECD-FAO and FAPRI. These projections were made before prices reached their peaks in 2008 and before the subsequent sharp decline in prices over recent months. They conclude that structural factors could sustain prices over the medium-term, though well below the recent price peaks.

01/08 - May 2008 [pdf] [Summary in pdf]

"China: Out of the Dragon’s Den?"

China is one of the fastest growing economies today and is the third largest trader after the EU and the US. The focus of this MAP is on trade, which has been one of the key drivers of economic growth since China joined the WTO in 2001. It has been a net importer of agricultural products since 2003 and is the biggest importer of several key commodities, including soybeans and edible oils. Increases in income and urbanization, leading to increased feed and food demand, mean that China's impact on world agricultural markets can only become stronger.

03/07 - December 2007 [pdf] [Summary in pdf]

"India's role in world agriculture"

India is one of the fastest growing economies of the world today and among the world's leading agricultural producers and yet its trade flows are relatively small compared with other main players.

02/07 - July 2007 [pdf]

"The Changing Face of EU Agricultural Trade"

Focus on changes in EU agricultural trade: despite the strengthening of the Euro and the enlargement, that increased net imports, the EU became the leading exporter of agricultural products.

01/07 - May 2007 [pdf]

"The 2007 Outlook for World Agricultural Commodity Markets"

This MAP examines the outlook for markets as we enter into a boom era for commodity prices, partly caused by drought and partly by the unprecedented level of fuel demand. The outlook is for prices to stay high but this is subject to many uncertainties including the development of biofuels, policy changes, WTO and, as always, the weather.

03/06 - December 2006 [pdf]

"Does the 'Trade Talk' match the 'Trade Walk'? Exploding the myths surrounding world trade"

This MAP looks at the gap between reality and rhetoric in the trade liberalisation debate. Amidst the demands for more market access and subsidy cuts, the argument for a more balanced approach is often lost. 

02/06 - November 2006 [pdf]

"Brazil’s Agriculture: a Survey"

Describes Brazilian agriculture, its importance within the overall economy, its position within world trade for key sectors and outlook for the future.

01/06 - June 2006 [pdf]

"The agricultural trade developments of major WTO players"

What's behind their positions in the DDA negotiations?

03/05 - December 2005 [pdf 2 MB]

"The state of play and outlook for world agricultural commodity markets"

02/05 - June 2005 [pdf]

"Africa’s agricultural economy : Its position in the world and its relations with the EU"

01/05 - March 2005 [pdf]

Focuses on US farm policy and domestic support – how it has evolved, the main elements of its domestic support system and how it compares to EU farm policy.

MAP Briefs

July 2009 [pdf]

"The Medium-Term World Agricultural Outlook 2009: Calmer after the storm?"

This year the main theme of the report [pdf] and MAP on agricultural commodity markets is the depth of economic recession and uncertainty about the speed of recovery. After reviewing the latest projections by OECD-FAO and FAPRI, the report looks at the impact of the latest macro-economic estimates. It notes that the medium term projections for prices are still upbeat. The report also contains a chapter on historical price volatility, concluding that this has increased for the products observed.

June 2008 [pdf]

"EU Agricultural Trade in 2007 - An Update"

Contains an update of the situation of EU agricultural trade following the publication of the MAP newsletter of May 2007. In particular it explains why the EU again became a net importer of agricultural products in 2007.

July 2007 [pdf]

"Update of 2007 Outlook for World Agricultural Commodity Markets"

Updates the May 2007 MAP newsletter on world commodity markets following the publication of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016.

July 2006 [pdf]

"Composition of agricultural trade of major WTO players"

Describes the composition of trade flows of the 10 major WTO players, in three broad categories: commodities, intermediate and high value products.

December 2005 [pdf]

"Making Hong Kong a success: The EU's position on trade-distorting farm support"

Highlighting the EU's position on trade-distorting export and domestic support

November 2005 [pdf]

"Making Hong Kong a success: The EU offer on market access"

Consistent, comprehensive and ambitious: Spotlight on the EU's offer to improve market access in agriculture.

Comes with a "Technical note" explaining the derivation of the TRQ formula used in the EU's proposal on market access [pdf]

November 2005 [pdf]

"Making Hong Kong a success: Analysing the EU’s last offer on agriculture"

First in the MAP Hong Kong series, analysing the EU's last proposal on agriculture, the reasons behind it and what is needed to get the talks moving again before December's Ministerial meeting in Hong Kong.

August 2005 [pdf]

"EU-US agricultural trade"

Spotlight on EU-US agricultural trade, in particular the impact of exchange rate and price fluctuations and the different trade structures.

April 2005 [pdf]

"AVE - Ad Valorem Equivalents"

Spotlight on tariffs, in particular the problem of defining the "ad valorem equivalent" and its importance for the Doha Round of trade talks.