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Agricultural commodity markets - Past developments and outlook

This report analyses long term developments on world agricultural markets for the main commodities and players, starting in 1980 and looking forward to 2014. It is based on data and publications produced by the main international organisations and institutes which provide forecasts for agricultural markets. For each commodity, the report identifies the key changes that have emerged over the last 25 years and comments on projections for the medium term.

The main source for historical data is the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). For the outlook, a comparison is drawn between the 2005 baselines of the FAO-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute). Both have been chosen because of the extent of information they provide, in particular in terms of their detailed regional and product coverage. In some cases, reference is also made to the baseline produced by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) through its interagency World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Special emphasis is put on a selection of countries which constitute the usual or new main players for world agricultural markets. Further specifications on the commodity and country coverage can be found in the methodological note in the appendix. This note also includes a list of the standard graphs and tables that are available for each commodity. The report itself only shows a small selection of these graphs. The full set of data for each commodity is available as a separate file.

The aim of this report is to contribute to a better understanding of agricultural markets, particularly within the context of the ongoing Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiations. In particular, it analyses the implications of shifting agricultural production patterns on world commodity markets.

The closing date for this report was February 2006.


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"Agricultural commodity markets - Past developments and outlook" [pdf]

Dataset (by commodity) [pdf/zipped, 4,5 MB]


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Publication date: 27-06-2006