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Prospects for agricultural markets and income 2004-2011 and the impact of enlargement

This publication provides a picture of the likely developments of agricultural markets up to 2011, based on a certain number of assumptions and information available end of October 2004.

The publication contains three chapters. The first chapter centres on the market prospects by the year 2011 within the EU and covers the following products: cereals, oilseeds, meat milk and the dairy products as well as the medium term development of agricultural income. Chapter II analyses the prospects of agricultural markets and income in the new Member States by comparing it with the hypothetical developments under a non-accession scenario. Finally, a presentation of the medium to long-term prospects of agricultural markets, as established by several international organisations and institutes, is given in chapter III.

The medium-term perspectives for the EU cereals, meat and dairy markets appear moderately positive thanks to the CAP reform, favourable world market conditions and an assumed return to a stronger USD. Barley continues to lose competitiveness in particular as compared to soft wheat and maize. Domestic cereals use stagnates over the medium term due to a less expansive livestock sector and gains in feeding efficiency in many new Member States. Stock levels are projected to increase but remain on a moderate level over the medium term.

The European meat sector came back to a more normal situation after the extreme market conditions due to the second BSE scare, the FMD outbreak in 2001 and the avian flu in 2003. The current situation in the beef market - where consumption is higher than domestic production - is expected to persist over the 2004-2011 period. Pig and poultry production and consumption are expected to keep growing over the medium term, with increased trade flows between the new and old Member States. The EU dairy sector is also foreseen to display a gradual improvement after the recent imbalance, with increasing cheese production and consumption and, at the same time, lower availability of butter and skimmed milk powder.

The report contains an analysis of the impact of enlargement. Agricultural trade within the EU-25 is going to further expand, in particular when some regional constraints as regards transport costs are overcome. The market situation appears overall positive and agricultural income is projected to increase further. As compared to 2003, the last year before membership, agricultural income per fulltime employed in the new Member States is supposed to double by 2011. Without membership agricultural income would decrease from 2006 onwards.

Published in January 2005

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Full text [pdf, 1.6 MB]

Executive summary [pdf]

Chapter I [pdf]

Chapter II [pdf]

Chapter III [pdf]

Tables:

Grains
[pdf][xls]

Meat and eggs
[pdf][xls]

Dairy
[pdf][xls]

Presentation [pdf][ppt]

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