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Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Autumn 2015)

Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2015 and 2016 pdf - 3 MB [3 MB]

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State excel12book - 2 MB [2 MB]



  • 2015 EU milk deliveries expected up by around 1% compared to last year.
  • Above average 2015/2016 EU wheat production but a strong reduction in maize production following a hot and dry summer.
  • Strong reduction in sugar production leading to a more balanced EU market in 2015/2016.
  • Further increase in all EU meat supplies in 2015, after the recovery in 2014.

In the dairy sector, despite low prices, milk deliveries are expected to slightly increase at EU level in 2015 and most probably in 2016. 2015 production is even expected to decrease in the two main milk producing countries, Germany and France. More milk is channelled into SMP and butter because of good demand (domestically and abroad), price competitiveness and storage possibilities. Cheese production is also expected to increase. Dairy commodity prices have now stabilised but further milk price cuts can be expected in the short-term.

EU cereal production is expected to be again above 300 million tonnes in 2015/2016. Although lower than last year's record harvest only 3 out of the last 10 seasons were more productive. Given good harvests worldwide and relatively low world prices, EU exports are expected to be lower than in 2014/2015. The significant reduction in EU white sugar production and the projected correction of the market unbalance at world level in 2015/2016 should allow the EU white sugar price to increase.

Pig meat production is expected to increase further in 2015 in spite of the low prices. However, the first signs of decrease in the reproductive herd could be observed recently. Poultry meat production continues its steady development. Good exports of meat and live cattle to Turkey bring relief on the beef market, where supply increase is driven by the dairy herd development. The rising availabilities of meat on the EU market translate into a further 2% increase in EU per capita consumption, after the strong recovery already observed in 2014.


Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)


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