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Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Summer 2016)

Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2016 and 2017 pdf - 2 MB [2 MB]

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State excel12book - 2 MB [2 MB]


Highlights

 

  • Further slowdown in world economic growth, depreciation in competing currencies and lower energy prices continue to pull down agricultural prices.
  • Abundant EU meat and dairy product supplies and lower prices, strong exports.
  • World ample cereal supplies push crop prices lower, EU record exports.
  • By contrast, EU and world sugar prices continue their recovery as stocks decline.

 

The slowdown in the world economic growth, in particular in commodity-exporting emerging economies contributes to a persistent general decline in commodity prices, including in still oversupplied crude oil. The slight re-appreciation of the euro to 1.15 EUR/USD affects the competitive advantage of the EU in the world market.

In 2016, EU milk deliveries are expected higher than in 2015, leading to strong SMP stock levels and prolonging the period of lower milk prices. Nevertheless, several dairy product prices have started improving. In addition, strong EU exports of butter, cheese and UHT milk and higher Chinese and US import demand contribute to re-balance the market.

Surge in pigmeat exports to China allows for a recovery in EU prices. Poultry meat production should increase at lower speed, challenged by strong world competition. Good exports of meat and live cattle bring relief in the beef market, abundantly supplied with dairy cows. Sheep meat production is increasing, despite lower prices.

Despite recent heavy rains across main grains producing regions in the EU, the coming cereal harvest could be the third bumper crop in a row. With stocks increasing, prices are likely to remain low in the coming marketing year. Overall oilseed production is foreseen to slightly decline in 2016/2017 in the EU, but the expected good US crop keep prices from rising. World and EU sugar markets are adjusting to the shift from ample supply to lower stock levels as consumption outpaces production.

This report is prepared for the EU-28, under constant policy assumptions, with the Russian import ban prolonged.

 

Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

 

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