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Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Summer 2015)

Short-term outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2015 and 2016 pdf - 3 MB [3 MB]

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State excel12book - 2 MB [2 MB]


Highlights

 

  • Strong EU exports thanks to good EU competitiveness and despite the Russian import ban.
  • 2015 EU milk deliveries expected 1% above last calendar year, as quotas expire.
  • The 2014/2015 cereal marketing year closes with record exports and stock replenishment supported by a best ever production. Next harvest expected to be also above average.
  • Further increase in all EU meat supplies in 2015, after the recovery in 2014.


In the dairy sector, despite quota expiry, milk deliveries are expected up by just 1% in 2015. In some Member States milk production increased strongly from 1st April 2015, while in other countries milk prices are not providing sufficient incentive. With the continuation of the Russian import ban, more milk is channelled into SMP and butter and less in cheese.


2014/2015 marketing year closes with a record production at 329 million tonnes of cereals (14% above average) and exports estimated close to 60% above average. The final stock-to-use ratio forecast, all cereals included, is at 18% at the end of the period (against 13% in 2013/2014). Oilseed production reached 35 million tonnes in 2014/2015 exceeding the previous harvest by more than 12%. New cereal harvest for 2015 is forecast for the third year in a row at higher than average levels (+6%).


Pig meat production is expected to increase further in 2015 driven by the low feed prices and a slightly higher breeding sows herd. Poultry meat production continues its steady development. Cow herd developments and export opportunities will drive EU beef production up in 2015. Relatively good prices and favourable forage conditions support an increasing herd and production in the sheep sector. This extra meat on the market translates in an increase of the EU per capita consumption by 1.4% or almost 1 kg in 2015, after the strong recovery already observed in 2014.

 

Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

 

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