Medium-term prospects for EU agricultural markets and income 2014-2024
This report presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income to 2024, based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis. These projections assume also a continuation of current agricultural and trade policies.
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Prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU 2014-2024 (12/2014)
Full text [6 MB]
Summary [198 KB]
Presentation [850 KB]
- Scenario: Impact of lower oil prices on the EU agricultural market outlook [159 KB]
- Background information on the baseline construction process and uncertainty analysis (JRC-IPTS)
- Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook. October 2014 Workshop Proceedings (JRC-IPTS)
- Conference "2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets" (Brussels, 05/12/2014)
- Partial stochastic analysis with the European Commission's version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model (JRC_IPTS)
2013-2023 [5 MB]
2012-2022 [4 MB]
2011-2021 [2 MB]
2010-2020 [856 KB]
This report presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets (arable crops, biofuels, meat and dairy products) and agricultural income to 2024. This analysis is based on information available at the end of September 2014 and an agro-economic model used by the European Commission. It is accompanied by an uncertainty analysis in order to quantify potential variations of the results stemming in particular from fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and yields of the main crops.
As part of the validation process, an external review of the baseline and the uncertainty scenarios was conducted at an Outlook Workshop in Brussels on 21 22 October 2014. Valuable input was collected from high-level policy makers, modelling and market experts from EU and non EU countries, private companies and other stakeholders, and international organisations such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Bank.
This European Commission publication is a joint effort between the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). While the authorship for the contents of the publication rest with the Agriculture Directorate-General, acknowledgement is due for the staff at the IPTS working on the organisation of the October workshop, the modelling background and baseline projections, as well as the uncertainty scenarios.