Medium-term prospects for agricultural markets and income
The medium-term prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU (also known as medium-term outlook) consists of a set of market and sector income prospects elaborated on the basis of specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, the agricultural and trade policy environment, weather conditions and international market developments.
Prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU 2013-2023 (12/2013)
Full text [5 MB]
Summary [161 KB]
Presentation [634 KB]
- Background information on the baseline construction process and uncertainty analysis (JRC-IPTS)
- Commodity Market Development in Europe – Outlook. October 2013 Workshop Proceedings (JRC-IPTS)
- Partial stochastic methodology of the European Commission's updated and augmented AGLINK-COSIMO model (JRC_IPTS)
The medium-term prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU (also known as medium term outlook) consists of a set of market and sector income prospects elaborated on the basis of specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, the agricultural and trade policy environment, weather conditions and international market developments.
Since 2010, the outlook features some considerable improvements, including an extended time horizon (beyond the usual 7 years) and product coverage (including biofuels, detailed oilseed complex, sugar and whole milk powder) as well as an attempt to identify and quantify the main areas of uncertainty: a separate part has been added to the publication dealing with scenarios on various uncertainties.
The modelling approach has also been improved by increasing the number of market and modelling experts involved and by relying on agro-economic models that represent the state of the art. The validation procedure has been extended to an external review of the baseline and uncertainty scenarios in a workshop held every October in Brussels, gathering high-level policy makers, modelling and market experts from the EU, the United States and international organisations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Bank.
These changes are to be seen as an attempt to improve the accuracy, usefulness and relevance of baseline market prospects that are more important to assess the impact of the Common Agriculture Policy.
Since 2010 the publication involves joint efforts by the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Perspective Technological Studies (IPTS). While the authorship and responsibility for the contents of the publication rest with the Agriculture Directorate-General, acknowledgement is due for the staff at the IPTS working on the organisation of the October workshop, the modelling background and baseline projections, as well as the uncertainty scenarios in the second part of the publication.